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Weekly outlook

May 18th, 2009

So, last week was negative (positive for us who where short…) on basically all exchanges over the world, with the American markets in the lead. The US financial sector is severely overbought, and I was anticipating a correction to take place. The downturn last week was only a fraction of the needed adjustment thou, and I am expecting the financial sector to lead the way downwards this week as well. I am therefore keeping my SKF and SDS positions and will probably take up some FAZ sometime over the week also.

In the Swedish market I now almost solemnly hold XACT Bear ( a 1.5X inverse ETF based on the OMXS30), lets hope the OMX follows the general trend down…

The USD has strengthened a little against the SEK, according to my predictions, and I think it will keep this trend (as long as the markets fall investors will inadvertently buy more dollars).

Tyler Durden has written an interesting piece on the future valuation of the greenback over the weekend. It is sufficient to say that this dollar squeeze has been a reality for quite some years, and It will be in effect again when the markets stabilize after the next low (I don’t believe that the low in march was the end of the crisis, there will be no V-shaped recovery, but more likely a W-shaped).

http://seekingalpha.com/article/138085-dollar-euro-short-squeeze-race

Personally I’ve gotten more interested in the FOREX market over the weekend after a friend gave me a link to some very interesting automated trading possibilities. After spending several hours reading about the market and trade in general and trading platforms and technical aspects in specific I am very excited about these possibilities. Expect me to start writing about these investment opportunities as soon as I’ve taken some of the first steps. Just to clarify I don’t think that the FOREX market is the holy grail to investments, I see it as a way to further diversify a portfolio, and probably will allocate no more that 5% of my portfolio to this market.

Read up on the basics of the FOREX market at: http://www.babypips.com/school/

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