What to do…

I’ve written a bit about this before. But now the live Pepperstone account have traded for a while, and I would classify the second half of September as quite hard because of the turbulence in the markets. Seems as Forex Shocker v3.0 is quite picky when to trade, which is good if it picks the wright times of course. And, well, it has. Do remember that they had losses in early August, but that they restarted the MyFXBook account to hide them. A silly move of course because no one cares about losses if they are balanced with more profits. A system that never loses doesn’t exist.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/shockerv3/shockerv3/148370

Here’s a official live account from the Forex Shocker guys trading v3.0 of their EA. Interestingly enough it is at Pepperstone. It haven’t traded long (since early June), but so far it has been quite undramatic, if not a little bit depressing. We’ll see in the long run.

Link: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/shockerv3/shockerv3/135399

Update: They’ve closed the account above and replaced it with this one http://www.myfxbook.com/members/shockerv3/shockerv3/148370 . Obviously they weren’t pleased with the performance and started over. Bad move. I think it still is the same live account thou, if it is it started with $900 asfaik. No point in offering live statements if you can’t stand for the losses the system incurs.

Both FAP Turbo and Forex Shocker has new versions out. Forex Shocker 3.0 and FAP Turbo Ichimoku. I haven’t had a chance to test them yet, but actually both seem quite promising. I’ve been hearing good things from a friend of mine about FS3.0 and FAPT Ichimoku has excellent backtests posted on their site. The backtests were performed with tickdata and has 99% accuracy. That is certainly not the same thing as a “proof”, like many of these EA vendors would like you to think, but it is usually a very good indication.

When I get back from my vacation I will run my own tickdata backtests on both EAs and get back with the results. I will also start demos at Pepperstone for forward testing.

Boy this was a turbulent week. I’ve come out on top for now in my manual trades and Green really have been helped by the decline in AUDNZD that followed the rate decision from the RBA on Tuesday. The huge drop in EURCHF as SNB stopped selling CHF at a fixed rate sure didn’t thou. Two of my accounts (Alpari UK and Forex.com/UK) is in deep drawdown now with a majority from it in long EURCHF and some is trapped in EURCHF hedges put in too late (IE price have reversed since opened).

Total gain over the week was $2033.47.

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This is not funny but again my scalpers failed and my manual (and long term) strategies gained. I’m starting to see a pattern…

AUDNZD really is behaving strange I think as it has descended substantially towards the 1.27 level during last week.  gain by it, but I don’t understand the motivation for a 500 pips lower valuation now compared with just three weeks ago. In my view nothing new of worth has come out of either Australia or New Zealand to motivate this huge drop, that doesn’t even seem to be stopped yet. Tonight there is a new RBA meeting and it is expected that they hike the rate by another 0.25%. That should of course send the AUD higher, but who knows right now. Seems that the market isn’t expecting a rate increase (as prices have been falling) but still this is what analyst sentiment is indication. IE, what happens if the rate is untouched? Even more downwards movement? Or is it fully priced in all ready? I have no idea, I just trade my simple system right now.

Total gain over the week was $108.20.

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This was another terrible week for the scalpers, especially Thursday when Forex Shocker and MegaDroid really wrecked havoc. Other than scalping this week was okay. Green didn’t make much since price was out of range most of the week, but my manual trades in AUDNZD got nice results (the same strategy that Blue is / will be based on).

Total gain was $436.41.

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I’m terribly late with this update. It was a terrible week so I haven’t had any motivation to write about it, but the idea with this blog is to force me to analyze performance and think about past results. So here is the post. The losses are in a great part due to a human mistake (mine). Like I wrote last week I put the wrong stoploss level in a lot of my hedges in AUDNZD, I set 1.3020 instead of 1.3120, losing me 100 pips in quite a few trades.

Also my scalping at JadeFX primarily (my main account for this kind of trading) was not very successful, a first for 2010 actually. Hopefully it recovers the loss in the coming weeks.

Total loss over the week across all accounts: $1775.40. Just terrible.

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Week 14 was really dominated, for me, by the rate hike decided by RBA which shot the AUDNZD above 1.32 again. This time I hedged my positions thou and closed the hedges on the way down. I had some left too long thou, which cost me dearly in the end. I miss placed the SL on quite a few trades so that they were not closed at 1.3120 as intended. Clumsy me put them at 1.3020. A very costly error (that will show even more in next weeks update). Mea culpa, no one to blame but me.

Total gain over the week was $228.28. Next week won’t be so nice thou, since a lot of the hedges are still open and in the red.

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I just realized that I didn’t make a weekly update during the Easter holiday. I was extremely busy during the weekend and it was a really welcomed break from work and trading. Because of the Holiday I only let my scalping EAs trade Monday and Tuesday.

The AUDNZD and EURCHF gave me real problems again. Both pairs trended outwards, minimizing my margin once again. One positive action was the massive selling of CHF the SNB shocked the market with on Thursday afternoon, catapulting the EURCHF up 240 pips. The AUDNZD trended higher thou as the market anticipated a rate change of 0.25% from the RBA (which was fulfilled after the Tuesday meeting).

Total gain over the week was a meager $62.69.

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I’ve been getting some questions about Forex Shocker and which pairs I trade and the settings to go along with them so I thought that I could post them. First of all I use both version 1.1 and version 2.0. I do because they trade different from each other and not during overlapping hours (with default settings).

With 1.1 I trade EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD and EURGBP. I use default settings, but I trade fixed lot sizes. I haven’t tried the Money Management (MM) function in Shocker at all actually, I just prefer fixed lots in all EAs I run. The (conservative) lot sizes used currently for my $2000 account on JadeFX is:

EURUSD: 0.1
USDCHF: 0.1
GBPUSD: 0.05
EURGBP: 0.1

With 2.0 I trade EURUSD, USDCHF and GBPUSD. Default settings here too. Since it is summertime now I use the DST setting in v2.0. Fixed lotsizes of:

EURUSD: 0.2
USDCHF: 0.1
GBPUSD: 0.1

You can calculate the maximum loss in $ with a stoploss of 34 pips (I think it is 30-34 pips depending on pair). If a FS2.0 EURUSD trade would hit the stoploss it would cost about $68, which is 3.4% of the $2000. But it is important to understand that Forex Shocker often opens double trades (the default setting is to allow up to two concurrent trades, you can limit this if you like, but I have found it to perform better with the default setting). This means that you stand to loose double that, which would give about 7%. This is a lot, but with this account I’m willing to risk it, since I use it only for scalping.

Yesterday I bought a second license and will start to trade it on my $7000 account at The Collective FX. I don’t want to take high risks in that account so I probably will use about the same lot sizes there. The biggest risk then would be about 2% if double trades is taken by FS 2.0 in EURUSD. I will demo trade for a while before going live at CFX thou, Forex Shocker is broker sensitive so it is not guaranteed that the pairs I trade at JadeFX is the best at CFX. It’s even a possibility that it isn’t profitable at all, but that is a slim chance I think. I read in Donna’s forum that some people have been getting great results with USDCAD recently, a pair that I even stopped in demo on JadeFX because it was not doing very well.

Forex Shocker costs $129 today but they will hike it to $249 tomorrow, so if you’re interested, think about it. I still think it is worth $249, but I would personally hesitate on that kind of money for a product without refund possibility. Additional licenses costs $99 right now but will cost $149 tomorrow.