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Commodities rising

May 29th, 2009

I’ve been quite inactive this week, I think it’s been hard to see a clear trend at the exchanges, I still think we are going to be trending downwards from here until the autumn, but it is not shown in the prices decisively as of yet.  So I turned my head to the commodities and bought gold, silver and oil, as I saw a trend there still.  I used the 2X certificates by SHB offered at OMX, but any vehicle is good I think. As of earlier I have the GLD ETF at NYSE in the portfolio for example (that when considering this weeks weakening of the SEK against the USD has done very well). So far I’ve been right on the money, with BULL GULD up 5.6%, BULL OLJA up 15.86% and BULL SILVER up 12.98% (as of this writing).

I’ve written about silver before and still my analysis is the same, it is in for higher prices this year. The reasons are mainly two, the weakening of the dollar and increased demand versus availability (stores and production is down). The Gold market is driven more by the uncertainty in the worlds currencies, but should not be underestimated. Lastly oil is going up from a very very historically low level this winter. OPEC has cut it’s production in order for it to go up, so why not play along?

As for the broader commodity ETF’s some are getting close to their 200-SMA’s. DBA (Agriculture) has already crossed it. DBB (Base Metals) is just shy of it, but has been trending in range for a month. DBC (General commodities Index) looks better, it is closing in on the 200-SMA with a upwards trend. DBE (Energy) is still quite a bit from the 200 day moving average, but it is in a strong upwards move (most certanly because of the Oil price of course). All in all I think that there will be buy signals in these ETF’s in a month or two.

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Author: admin Tags: , , ,
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