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What to do… » “The higher and faster we ascend, the stronger and quicker we’ll fall.”
Home > American finance > “The higher and faster we ascend, the stronger and quicker we’ll fall.”

“The higher and faster we ascend, the stronger and quicker we’ll fall.”

May 11th, 2009

Okay, I know that I’ve made posts before about the imminent crash, but this blogpost is just so excellent in showing how the banks made the Q1 “profits”.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/136769-a-summary-of-q1-bank-earnings-world-you-just-got-hustled

Again, if I were an american taxpayer I would be enraged at the current government. Luckily I’m not. But the ramifications will of course be severe wherever you live, since the greenback is basically every nations second currency (and many even the first).

So, what am I doing now? In short, I’m starting to sell equites on all markets. I have some ETF:s left in emerging markets (FXI, EWZ and EWM), but I think even those will have to go this week, and a long position in OMXS30 that I will reduce. I’ve also today taken up short positions in the S&P500 and EuroStoxx 50. Since before I’m short the USD and EUR and long gold, silver, platinum and palladium, that will not change.

So how about gold? I think it will be considered the “safe heaven” it historically often have been when there’s storms abruin.  So I’m staying long in gold. Some bloggers agree with me: http://seekingalpha.com/article/136849-how-will-gold-perform-in-the-coming-equity-crash

Silver then? Not so sure anymore. One of the arguments for a bullish outlook on silver is gone if there is another wave of crisis and that’s the increase in industrial use. But for now I am staying long in silver too, just not as much as gold.

Platinum and palladium is even more dependant on the industrial use buyers, so I will keep them on a short leach for now. Signs of declining prices and I’m gone.

Oil then? I think we will se a stagnant oil price now around $55 for Brent. The summer usually means higher oil price, but not this one I think.  Despite this I will keep my convertibles in PA Resources (on the OMX), because I think they will announce news about the finds in GITA soon (Noreco has given some estimates in their Q1 report). But I might short the Oil just in case, we’ll see.

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  1. September 13th, 2009 at 11:51 | #1

    You web site is great!!

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